Morris A. Davis

Links: · Curriculum Vitae · Research · Foreclosure Relief · Senate Testimony · Personal stuff: Hot Money Band & The Contractions

Department of Real Estate and Urban Land Economics Wisconsin School of Business Grainger Hall #5261 975 University Avenue Madison, WI 53706-1323 US Voice and Fax: (+1) 608 262-8775 Email: mdavis at bus.wisc.edu Current affiliations beyond the Wisconsin School of Business: · Fellow of the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy (click here to see my U.S. land and housing data on the Lincoln Institute Web Site) · Academic Advisory Council, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago · Board of Directors, American Capital Agency Corporation (ticker AGNC)

Research

Academic Papers on Housing, Macroeconomics, and Asset Pricing

Title	With	Last Updated	Latest Version	Additional Material
Reflections on the Foreclosure Crisis		Jun. 2010	Land Lines (publication of the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy)
Housing and the Business Cycle (Palgrave entry)		Mar. 2010	New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics Online
Discussion of “Endogenous Gentrification and Housing Price Dynamics”		Feb. 2010	Prepared for the 2010-02 EFG Meetings in San Francisco
Macroeconomic Implications of Agglomeration	Jonas D.M. Fisher and Toni M. Whited	Dec. 2009	Here
Household Expenditures, Wages, Rents	François Ortalo-Magné	Dec. 2009	Review of Economic Dynamics, accepted	· Data
What Moves Housing Markets: A Variance Decomposition of the Rent-Price Ratio	Sean D. Campbell, Joshua Gallin, and Robert F. Martin	Jun. 2009	Journal of Urban Economics, 2009, vol. 66 (2), p. 90-102	· Data (2007:H2) · Old version: April 2006
Housing, Home Production, and the Equity and Value Premium Puzzles	Robert F. Martin	Apr. 2009	Journal of Housing Economics, 2009, vol. 18 (2), p. 81-91	· Old versions: Feb. 2005
The Price and Quantity of Land by Legal Form of Organization in the United States		Dec. 2008	Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2009, vol. 39 (3), p. 350-359	· Data (2007:Q4)
The Rent-Price Ratio for the Aggregate Stock of Owner-Occupied Housing	Andreas Lehnert and Robert F. Martin	Dec. 2007	Review of Income and Wealth, 2008, vol. 54 (2), p. 279-284	· Data · Articles: The Economist, Wall Street Journal, Reuters · Blogs: Greg Ip #1, Greg Ip #2, my full response
What’s Really Happening in Housing Markets?	François Ortalo-Magné and Peter Rupert	Jul. 2007	Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, 2007-07
The Price and Quantity of Residential Land in the United States	Jonathan Heathcote	Jun. 2007	Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007, vol. 54 (8), p. 2595-2620	· Data and Appendix
The Price of Residential Land in Large U.S. Cities	Michael G. Palumbo	Feb. 2007	Journal of Urban Economics, 2008, vol. 63 (1), p. 352-384	· Data · Old version: June 2006 · Articles: Christian Science Monitor, WSJ.com
Housing and the Business Cycle	Jonathan Heathcote	Nov. 2003	International Economic Review, 2005, vol. 46 (3), p. 751-784	· Data (Oct. 2002) · Data Appendix (Oct. 2002, out of date)
A Primer on the Economics and Time Series Econometrics of Wealth Effects	Michael G. Palumbo	Jan. 2001	FEDS working paper, 2001-09

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Academic Papers on Health and Labor Economics

Title	With	Last Updated	Latest Version	Additional Material
The Insurance, Health, and Savings Decisions of Elderly Women Living Alone		Feb. 2006	Here	· Old version (dissertation): Aug. 1998
A Stochastic Dynamic Model of the Mental Health of Children	E. Michael Foster	Jan. 2003	International Economic Review, 2005, vol. 46 (3), p. 837-866	· Old version: July 1999

Foreclosure Relief

· UPDATE! HAMP now helps the unemployed!

(We have been lobbying for this for quite some time)

· My Power Point slides for the State of Nevada Hearings on Foreclosure Relief 03-05-2010 (.ppt file).

· The Wisconsin Foreclosure and Unemployment Relief Plan

(defunct as of March 30, 2010)

1. Power Point slides describing the plan 11-17-2009 (.ppt file)

2. Calculations:
- Gross outlays of WI-FUR at current levels of unemployment
- The true cost of WI-FUR to taxpayers, as compared to doing nothing (.xls file)

3. Suggested WI-FUR voucher amounts by county (.xls file)

4. Briefing to Congressional staff on 12-04-2009 (.ppt file)

5. My posting on blog Econbrower

6. WI-FUR web site (somewhat dated)

7. The “Boston Fed” plan (another plan that will prevent foreclosures of the unemployed)

· Various problems with the Administration’s current plan: HAMP mortgage modifications
(click here to read the Administration’s December 2009 HAMP report)

a. Economics (old)

March 26, 2010: NEW! HAMP now helps the unemployed. Read here.

The unemployed are unlikely to be eligible to be helped by HAMP.

In a recent Freddie Mac survey, 57% of prime conforming borrowers who made successful contact with their servicers list “Unemployment or Curtailment of Income” as the main hardship reason. The #2 and #3 reasons were “Excessive Obligation” (19%, again this could be unemployment) and “Illness or Death in the Family” (11%)

The loss of income while unemployed, for most, is too great for the unemployed to be eligible for a modification according to the rules of the HAMP “NPV” test.

Also, in the event that some unemployed do get a modification, the HAMP policy is bad public policy. A permanent mortgage modification should not be the solution to a temporary disruption of income.

b. Administration Issues

Threat of perjury, mail fraud, wire fraud, etc. See page 4! (.pdf file)

c. Credit Score Issues

A mortgage modification can cause a 100 point hit (= destructive) to FICO credit scores. CNN article here.
(Note: there is some talk that this is a temporary problem).